GERN- I left out eps after tax, and assumption of more dilution
When I did my valuation analysis, I didn't include the tax effect. So if GERN made $1 in eps on $1B in revenues, they would only make .$.75-$.80 after tax. However in addition, if GERN goes it on their own, they will need another offering within 3-6 months. Assuming the fully diluted count goes up to 700M(at some point over the next 2 years), then there would be a dilutive effect of about 16%-17%. I'm figuring that by the time GERN does $1B/year, and they go it on their own, they would have at least 700M shares by then. So now we've got to take down eps by another 17% lets say, and that would bring eps to $.64 fully taxes and diluted. Now we should attach a decent PE, as GERN will likely be growing revenues like gang busters, so a PE of 15-20 is conservative IMO. Therefore going forward 2-3 years, assuming things go well, I would give a target of $9.60 to $12.80, or avg $11.20.
Now this number assumes only $1B, while GERN is projected $2B-$3B by 2030. Plus GERN is in phase 3 trials for the use of Imetelstat for Myelofibrosis, which not one company has a drug for when relapsed. So lots of potential, assuming FDA approval.
