InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 122
Posts 28155
Boards Moderated 2
Alias Born 10/04/2004

Re: None

Saturday, 03/16/2024 9:12:27 PM

Saturday, March 16, 2024 9:12:27 PM

Post# of 112576
GERN- I left out eps after tax, and assumption of more dilution

When I did my valuation analysis, I didn't include the tax effect. So if GERN made $1 in eps on $1B in revenues, they would only make .$.75-$.80 after tax. However in addition, if GERN goes it on their own, they will need another offering within 3-6 months. Assuming the fully diluted count goes up to 700M(at some point over the next 2 years), then there would be a dilutive effect of about 16%-17%. I'm figuring that by the time GERN does $1B/year, and they go it on their own, they would have at least 700M shares by then. So now we've got to take down eps by another 17% lets say, and that would bring eps to $.64 fully taxes and diluted. Now we should attach a decent PE, as GERN will likely be growing revenues like gang busters, so a PE of 15-20 is conservative IMO. Therefore going forward 2-3 years, assuming things go well, I would give a target of $9.60 to $12.80, or avg $11.20.

Now this number assumes only $1B, while GERN is projected $2B-$3B by 2030. Plus GERN is in phase 3 trials for the use of Imetelstat for Myelofibrosis, which not one company has a drug for when relapsed. So lots of potential, assuming FDA approval.

Join the InvestorsHub Community

Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.